SYLLABUS SECTION: GS III (ECONOMY)

WHY IN THE NEWS?

Recently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Monsoon Forecast for the 2022 southwest monsoon was 103 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

DETAILS:                         

• IMD says that 99 percent of LPA was predicting in April as La Niña conditions are expected to prevail during the entire stretch of the four-month monsoon season.
• LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recording over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30 years, 50 years, etc.
• It acts as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for that region for a specific month or season.
• The LPA for the seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole from 1971 to 2010 is 87 centimeters (cm).
• IMD forecast is based on the fact that La Nina, which contributes to moisture availability over the subcontinent will be favorable throughout the season.
• If the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition, increases the chances of suppressing monsoon bursts over the Indian subcontinent, will be not there monsoon LPA would be 103%.

SIGNIFICANCE:

• This will be good for the production of both pulses and oilseeds.
• Good production will help in tempering the prices of pulses and particularly in the case of oilseeds that have been on the boil for the past few months.
• Normal rains are good for higher grain production during the Kharif season when crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soybean are sown.

La NINA: 

• La Nina, also known as a little girl, is the cooling phase weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina is considered positive for the Indian monsoon.
• El Nino, also known as a little boy or Christ Child, is the warming phase of the Pacific Ocean.
• Together, La Nina and El Nino are cold (La Nina) and warm (El Nino) phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE:

The IOD is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon, similar to ENSO but in the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Positive IOD

• warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean relative to the east
  • easterly wind anomalies across the Indian Ocean and less cloudiness to Australia’s northwest
  • less rainfall over southern Australia and the Top End.

  Negative IOD:

  • cooler sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean relative to the east
  • winds become more westerly, bringing increased cloudiness to Australia’s northwest
  • more rainfall in the Top End and southern Australia.

   

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Source: Business Standard